Don't have an account? Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!
Already have an account? Log In
The Tom Kim train steamed into the station on Sunday, blitzing the field with a 61 in his final round. We were lucky enough to bet him when his putter roasted the Sedgefield greens, but golf is a weird sport and when things like that happen, we enjoy them as we have been on the wrong end of those kinds of performances many times before.
The Tom Kim win is our fourth outright in 21 events, which puts us well ahead of schedule regarding breaking even every eight events in the outright market. The last six weeks have been amazing, profiting in five of those and barely losing money at the Scottish. On the season, we have returned 17.38% on our $100 each week, totaling $364.95 in profits which is really exciting stuff. Hopefully we can keep it going through the end of the year.
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver", all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
TPC Southwind, Par: 70, Yardage: 7,243, Greens: Bermuda, Designer: Ron Prichard
The tour shuffles its slimmed-down field to Memphis where 125 golfers who made the playoffs will look to rise up the rankings in Tom Kim fashion. We remain on a Par 70 and Bermuda putting surface which should help keep the handicapping process similar to last week with a few key changes still taking place.
Southwind is a ball striker's paradise, with approach play carrying one of the strongest correlations we have seen this year, particularly from 125-200 proximity ranges, where golfers will find themselves 65% of the time. To put this percentage into perspective, it is a combined 11% more than tour average, so success from this range is paramount this week.
Accuracy off the tee as well as general dominance with the driver will be crucial to putt approach shots in premium positions to attack flags. With scores typically falling in the mid-teens, birdie or better percentage will once again be an important metric in the first week of the playoffs.
Below are the settings for the model:
Our betting strategy for outrights is rather conservative, requiring a winner once every eight events in order to break even. From a dollar standpoint, we are betting $13 of our $100 to net $110 or more. The theme of the outright card includes two guys who both won the last tournament they played in and then two guys who have had multiple close calls recently and continue to strike the ball sensationally.
The Champion Golfer of the Year and our Breaking $100 cash cow makes his millionth appearance on our card. Cameron Smith is officially the second-ranked golfer in the world and appears to be as hungry as ever to continue to add hardware to a trophy cabinet that is filling up quicker than me at a Paula Dean buffet.
The model has him ranked first in this field courtesy of his field-best birdie percentage, world class short game, and an approach profile that has a baseline that could spell trouble for the rest of the field if his irons return back to tip-top form. Although he is relatively poor off the tee, he now has a new driver in the bag that he has gained strokes in seven of his last eight rounds.
If Smith can continue to hit that beautiful butter cut off the tee, the rest of his game is poised to improve on his T5 finish he had here last year, with a fantastic opportunity to win back-to-back starts, tie Scottie Scheffler with four wins on the season, and close the gap on the best player in the world.
Joohyung "Tom" Kim ($3.05 @ +4000 on DraftKings)
Joohyung "Tom" Kim finds himself back on our card after sealing the deal for us last week in epic fashion. He putted lights out, but if he can continue to play great golf in his eighth consecutive start, he can lean on his ball striking this week to get the job done again. He is extremely accurate off the tee and can really dial in his approach play, which is typically from the middle of the fairway.
In his limited starts this year, Tom has made a ton of birdies and should continue to do so this week. He seems to enjoy putting on Bermuda greens, gaining a gargantuan +12.55 strokes last week. That kind of performance will be tough to repeat, but he is obviously playing with immense confidence right now and hopefully we can continue to take advantage of that if he goes back-to-back.
Russell Henley enters the week in red-hot form with his irons. In a star-studded field, over the last eight rounds, only Tom Hoge has gained more strokes on approach. At an event that has seen past winners do so without gaining putting, Henley is a perfect candidate to ball-strike his way to victory. Henley putts better on Bermuda greens compared to all surfaces which could help him immensely when contending for a win.
Russell is also one of the best in the world from 125-200 and continues to flash world-class accuracy off the tee, giving him every weapon necessary to be a menace in Memphis. Even with a putter that can go ice cold at times, Henley is still inside the top 20 in birdie percentage. If Henley can conquer the "Sunday Scaries", his game is primed to break into the winner's circle again.
Similar to Henley, Emilliano Grillo is one of the best ball strikers in the field and after a brief departure from ball-striking excellence earlier in the year, the "Grill-o" has ignited and could cook through a titanium t-bone steak when all the burners are on. Off the tee, he remains one of the best in the world, ranking 18th on tour, using both accuracy and distance to frequent that ranking list with guys like Viktor Hovland and Justin Thomas.
Grillo cooks best on Bermuda greens and is really solid from 0-15 feet, which is where the majority of birdie putts will come from this week. His last three starts have been T2, MC, T2, and is somehow 150-1 to win a golf tournament. If the short game can behave itself this week, the rest of Grillo's game is peaking at a course that suits his skill profile, which gives him a fantastic shot at winning.
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription?
Like what you read today? You can show your support for Byron by using the discount code MANIAC when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry. Spencer is absolutely crushing out of the gate in 2022!
Hayden Buckley -118 over Vincent Whaley gets to the window. @RotoBaller 4-0-1 in-tournament H2Hs this week 9-1-1 on the season. https://t.co/bGvwKIWIBu pic.twitter.com/se5s4mWjPi
From a dollar standpoint, we are betting a total of $12 on three guys to net $110 or more. Rory McIlroy makes the FRL card averaging a RIDICULOUS +6.08 strokes gained in his last six Thursday rounds.
We have six placing bets, with three top 20 and three top 40 bets. Looks like BetMGM has odds out this week for T20 AND T40, which is AWESOME! When a book offers ties paid in full, we are willing to drop the odds required to meet the betting threshold by 30 points, as avoiding dead heat rules is worth paying that premium.
Sam Burns (T20: $11.7 @ +175 on FanDuel)
Collin Morikawa (T20: $11.66 @ +130 on BetMGM)
Joohyung Kim (T20: $11.66 @ +150 on BetMGM)
Emilliano Grillo (T40: $11.66 @ +125 on BetMGM)
Mark Hubbard (T40: $11.66 @ +150 on BetMGM)
Tom Hoge (T40: $11.66 @ +140 on BetMGM)
Keegan Bradley (T10: $5 @ +700 on BetMGM)
Keegan Bradley has been one of my favorite golfers to bet on, as a ball striker like him who seems to have found a putter, offers a lot of upside if the two parts of his game can quit feuding with each other. The nerves may get to him when looking to win, so why not grab 7-1 odds for a top 10 if he plays like he should?
Good luck this week and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
Congrats @tenndolly2 ??? Thanks for being a @RotoBaller PGA DFS Premium subscriber & checking out all the amazing golf content that @JoeNicely produces every week! https://t.co/tHKZVsPbbt
All new sign-ups get a free year of RotoBaller's Premium Pass for all sports ($450 value)! Check out all of the sportsbooks and their bonus offers:
The trade deadline dust has settled, and we're still not over it here at RotoBaller. Those were some wild days leading up to what was a really wild Tuesday! Bullpens across the league were affected, and while some of the changes were obvious, others were a little less clear and needed time to sort themselves... Read More
Welcome back RotoBallers! We are just a few days in after the All Star break, and we'll have a loaded week of games coming up. As always, we are here with our starting pitcher starts and sits series to help you set those winning lineups for the week ahead! For those who are not familiar,... Read More
Saves are an important component for many fantasy baseball leagues. Closers are one of the most volatile positions in fantasy baseball, and one of the highest turnover positions in MLB. Each year, closers drop like flies and many MLB teams make in-season changes due to injuries or poor performance. In addition to closers and saves, relief... Read More
What's up what's up! It's Jon Anderson filling in this week to recommend some two-start streaming options for Week 19 of the fantasy baseball season. Week 19!? Holy cow, the season is flying by. This weekly fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups column aims to identify starting pitchers expected to make two starts in the upcoming... Read More
Welcome back to another edition of my "Breakout Hitters To Watch" series. What we're doing here is taking a good, close look at the hitting data each week to see which hitters are standing out the most. At times this year, I have gone away from the "breakout" term to just highlight hitters that have... Read More
Making the right trades can be crucial to championship success in fantasy baseball, almost as much as the draft, if not more. While most trades can have a significant impact on your fantasy team, it’s the deals where you acquire undervalued players and then see their production improve that can really tip the scales in... Read More
Welcome back RotoBallers to my deep dive on Bobby Miller. In this Dynasty Pitcher Fantasy Baseball Prospects series, I will focus on key pitching fundamentals as quantified by my FaBIO (Fielding and Ballpark Independent Outcomes) evaluation system (my RotoBaller debut article more fully explains the FaBIO methodology). Every plate appearance is sorted into one of... Read More
The trade deadline has passed, which has made implications in the prospects rankings list this week. Some prospects got moved, creating a new paradigm for them. Some veterans I was thinking would get moved to open up a spot for a prospect to come up did not get moved. Check out all of the happenings... Read More
The middle of August signals a turn into the fantasy season's stretch run! Are you and your rotation ready? Last week, we looked at arms who moved at the deadline, and this week, we'll turn back to some fun leaderboards (with stats since July 1st) going into Tuesday. Let's get to it with the latest... Read More
It's another jammed-packed Friday full of MLB action with 13 games on the main slate and I'm ready to help you win some money playing MLB DFS. But baseball isn't just something I enjoy writing about or gambling on, it's a part of my childhood and a game that I watched and played for many... Read More
A short slate of games won't stop us from wagering on them! Whether you like game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you and try to cover a little bit of everything! Last month, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are... Read More
Happy Friday, RotoBallers, and happy birthday to me! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock... Read More
Hello everybody and welcome! The 2022 MLB All-Star Break has officially ended and we here at RotoBaller are ready to kick off the second half of the season with some terrific plays with our friends over at PrizePicks. PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of... Read More
The Washington Commanders used their first-round pick (No. 16 overall) in the 2022 NFL draft to select Penn State wide receiver Jahan Dotson. Dotson stands 5'11" and weighs 183 pounds and will team with Terry McLaurin to give new Washington quarterback Carson Wentz two talented receivers to target. Dotson was the RotoBaller consensus rookie WR8... Read More
Below you will find our updated fantasy football injuries report for running backs in the 2022 NFL preseason as of Friday August 12th. The injury statuses for various NFL running backs are up in the air during training camp, including Najee Harris, Antonio Gibson, J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards, James Robinson, and Kenneth Gainwell. With peak draft... Read More
Today I'm here to discuss some quarterback fantasy football sleepers and value picks. Identifying undervalued players in the late rounds of fantasy football drafts is one of the best ways to give you a better shot of winning your fantasy leagues year in and year out. This is especially true with the quarterback position, as... Read More
Adjusting to the speed and the rigors of the NFL can be tough, and not every player will do it effectively as a rookie. And that's okay! Plenty of players struggle in their first year but then breakout later. But not every player. Some struggle as rookies and then follow that up with more struggles.... Read More
Arizona running back James Conner is currently being drafted as the RB16 in the third round of PPR redraft leagues. This price is certainly understandable. Conner finished as the RB5 last year, racking up 18 total touchdowns in the process. He also demonstrated his ability as a pass-catcher with 37 receptions on 39 targets. These... Read More
There are so many different fantasy football draft strategies nowadays, but no other strategy comes with as much scrutiny and judgment as the zero-running back strategy. For the longest time, the running back position was widely accepted as the most important position in fantasy football. For some, that’s still very much the case. However, with... Read More
Tight end is a fun position in fantasy football. There's a clear top group of tight ends, headlined by Travis Kelce. The top-five tight ends all count as "must-have" tight ends because of positional scarcity, but it's boring to suggest you draft the following names: Kelse, Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts, George Kittle, and Darren Waller.... Read More
There's no "best" way to win in fantasy football, but there are some good ways, and one of those good ways is to draft good players in the late rounds. Sounds easy, right? Not really! How many times have you spent a 14th-round pick on a player and then dropped him after Week 2 because... Read More
Each year, we see a handful of incoming rookie WRs finish as a WR2 or better in fantasy football. While the best rookies are typically those who are drafted in the first round (Odell Beckham Jr., Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase), there are also numerous recent examples of Day 2 and 3 picks who also had... Read More
Joey and Dave reveal their must-have quarterbacks for 2022 fantasy football drafts - players who are potential league-winners. Like and subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch us on iTunes and BlogTalkRadio as well! Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (channel Sirius 210, XM... Read More
Joey and Dave reveal their must-have tight ends for 2022 fantasy football drafts - players who are potential league-winners. Like and subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch us on iTunes and BlogTalkRadio as well! Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (channel Sirius 210,... Read More
While you may feel like a bigger degenerate betting on the preseason than Clark Griswold at a Las Vegas casino, here is this week's DFS article for Week 1 of the NFL preseason because you and I both know that you're jonesing for some NFL DFS action. While it can be more difficult to project... Read More
After missing all of last season with a torn meniscus, Minnesota Vikings tight end Irv Smith Jr. suffered another setback earlier this month when he had thumb surgery. While Smith is a talented player, availability has become a definite issue for him. Will the Vikings have Irv Smith Jr. back for Week 1?Featured Promo: Get... Read More